Change Agents by Barbara Diamond
No one can accurately predict the future, but future forecasters have honed the skill
of seeing and interpreting the patterns through which today’s small changes are gathering force to drive major change in upcoming years. Like meteorologists who read the forces in today’s weather to offer a plausible forecast for tomorrow, futurists help us make plans and decisions today in preparation for tomorrow’s world. Six major forces, or drivers of change, are at the heart of the KnowledgeWorks Foundation/Institute for the Future 2006–2016 Map of Future Forces Affecting Education.*
These drivers influence not just education, but business, politics,
society, and the environment as well. Several reflect the
revolutionary impact of digital technology and the Internet,
while others focus on the effects of human activity on the
global environment. Each driver of change offers both challenges
and opportunities for all those involved in education or
in preparing our children for the future.
This article uses current examples to sketch out the important
drivers of change affecting the world of education.
These trends will continue to shape the
world in new and unexpected ways during the
coming decade. The best way for educators to
meet this future is to actively engage and prepare
for it. The Map of Future Forces Affecting
Education, which is included as a special pullout
section in this issue of Threshold, offers a
tool for doing just that. We invite you to dig
in and make good use of it!
Grassroots Economics:
From Economies of Scale to
Economies of Groups
The phrase "Think globally, act locally!" dates
back to the late 1960s or early 1970s, depending
on one’s preference among accounts
of its origins. The need to think globally has
become increasingly evident in the intervening
years. But the admonition to "think locally" also holds deep
relevance for the present and the future. It is a key to understanding
emerging economic behavior. Grassroots economics,
the first driver of change, points to new rules for creating
value–whether financial, social, intellectual, reputational,
or any other kind—through collaboration, bottom-up processes,
and shared resources. Negotiation, top-down processes,
and private property still exist, but they are becoming less
effective as strategies
for success.
Prominent examples of grassroots economics are already a part of everyday life for many
people. Value is created on the online–auction
site eBay, where buyers and sellers from all over
the world have created a whole economy that
would not exist without their bottom–up participation.
The site’s buyers also rate sellers, and the much–coveted designation
of "power seller" must emerge from the grassroots opinions of many buyers—not from the
assessment of a central controlling authority. Similar kinds of
grassroots activity take place in other parts of the Web,
including Amazon.com, where consumers review books
and make recommendations, and various travel sites where peoples’
recommendations drive buyers’ decisions on where to stay
on vacation.
Wikipedia, a user-created online encyclopedia, offers another
powerful, present–day example of grassroots activity.
Wikipedia uses a wiki application–after one person posts an
entry, others are free to expand or edit the entry. No editorial
board assembles experts or approves entries in advance.
Wikipedia is a purely collaborative enterprise in which people
build on one another’s work. Open peer review is built into
the system. The Wikipedia community has engaged in an iterative
process for ensuring accuracy, including the prevention
of use of the space to puff up or destroy reputations. But even
this effort has been and continues to be a grassroots process,
powered by the energy of a dispersed group of grassroots enthusiasts.
In their book Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration
Changes Everything, Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams
cite a study by Nature magazine of 42 science entries
that found Wikipedia actuallyhad fewer errors–that by now have been
fixed–than the Encyclopedia Britannica.
Research and development is becoming a grassroots activity in many
spheres. On issues that range from health care to the environment to civic
processes in general, people in local communities are developing and trying new ideas and
solutions for local issues. Policymakers look to these experiments as a source of inspiration and evidence for state or
federal policies. Even global companies such as Procter & Gamble and IBM are "open–sourcing" their research and development,
inviting participation from innovators worldwide. They are finding that the old command–and–control methods
of organizing innovation are less competitive. As these grassroots practices spread, the world of education
is being affected as well. Some early pioneers, such as Curriki and OER (Open Educational Resources) Commons, already
provide platforms where teachers post lesson plans and other resources. These teachers are participating in the grassroots
movement by sharing lesson plans, projects, and other classroom material they have developed and collaborating with other
teachers. Grassroots economics also is beginning to play out in the form of the expanding learning economy, where numerous
providers are creating and marketing learning opportunities. These new providers include charter schools, tutoring services,
educational toy makers, and online sources of information. Key questions for public schools will be how to find a way to
be a part of the emerging learning economy, how to take advantage of the innovative power of teachers, and how to
offer engaging, effective new learning experiences for students.
Smart Networking:
From Informed Citizens to Engaged Networkers
Social scientists have studied social networks for at least 50 years in order to understand how society works. Smart networking emphasizes age–old human capacities to network using new, connective technology, from Facebook to LinkedIn to
hotjobs.com. The skills of smart networking make it possible for people to form groups and spark action at new levels of
speed and effectiveness. For members of each generation, starting with Gen X (born 1965–1980) and continuing through
Gen Y (born 1981–2000) and Gen Z (born since 2000), smart networking is increasingly becoming a way of life. As Gens Y
and Z grow into adulthood, become parents, and assume positions of leadership, the role of smart networking in shaping
our world will continue to grow in importance.
The sophistication and utility of networks also will continue to grow. Already, MySpace participants have used the network
to organize fellow members around the issue of immigration. Democratic Party gatherings are among the top interests of users
of Meetup, a social–networking site where people can find others with similar interests and organize face–to–face meetings.
Throughout the presidential campaign, candidates have used sites such as MySpace and Meetup to spread their message, raise
funds, and rally supporters. Howard Rheingold, in his book Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution, explained how smart
networking is used to create smart mobs–groups brought together for action through communications and cooperative technology. Smart mobs can mobilize for actions that range from entertainment to socializing to advocacy.
An immediate implication of smart networking for educators is that today’s students are connected and cooperating
with each other much of the time when they are outside school. As a result, entering the world of school, where they
are largely disconnected and working on their own, gives them an experience comparable to culture shock. In the longer
term, as these smart networkers become parents and teachers, they are likely to use their skills to mobilize in one or
more ways. They will organize in new ways to seek changes in schools and they will assemble or join networks that
provide resources for their children and students. The homeschool parents of today, who are highly organized in terms of
both advocacy and learning resources, are just the forward edge of this trend.
Strong Opinions, Strongly Held:
From a Global Media Culture to a Splintered Fundamentalism
Many baby boomers grew up reading the Canadian thinker Marshall McLuhan, who wrote that, with global communications,
the world would become a global village characterized by collective identity. Instead, media of all sorts are
becoming fragmented. Even with 200 or more cable, broadcast, and satellite channels, television viewers tend to watch
the ones that match their interests and tastes. The same principle applies to books, magazines, and Internet sites. Increasingly,
it is becoming possible to live in an informational echo chamber, where people are exposed only to those who
share their interests or opinions.
In this environment, people will associate increasingly only with those who are like them. Fundamentalism of all sorts–strictly adhering to any set of basic ideas or principles–will continue to grow in strength, separate from the mainstream.
Religious fundamentalism is on the upswing throughout the world, characterized by extreme views on both sides of
issues such as evolution and same-sex relationships. Political fundamentalism also is on the rise, with no room for compromise
on such matters as abortion, animal rights, or even certain environmental issues. At the same time, the meaning
of diversity is expanding to encompass groups organizing around new kinds of differences, including a shared illness such
as breast cancer or a shared household structure such as a blended family.
Another manifestation of this driver of change, fueled by virtual social networks, will be the increasing ease with which
groups can form and convene around narrow personal interests. Again, Meetup’s list of top interests is revealing: Network
participants form groups around focused, shared interests such as pug dogs, poker, ghost-tracking, or Japanese language,
to name a few. Using the networking tool, people who share these interests are finding each other and getting together to
further their interests.
Educators already feel the first breath of this driver of change in at least two ways. First, it is no surprise that strong
opinions encourage all kinds of consumers, including learners, to seek out highly personalized products. Personalization
of instruction is already a byword in the learning economy, even as schools seek ways to implement it in the era of No Child
Left Behind. Second, school boards and state boards of education are the targets of campaigns by various interest groups
to alter curricula and policies. Divisive issues include prayer in school, the school’s role in preventing pregnancy and sexually
transmitted diseases, values education, and others. These and similar effects of strong opinions are likely to increase in the coming decade.
Sick Herd:
From Steadily Improving Quality of Life to Increasing Signs of Distress
It is hard not to notice that health scares have become a recurrent fact of life in the United States. First it was AIDS. Deaths from HIV/AIDS in the U.S. peaked in 1995, but roughly 40,000 new cases continue to be diagnosed each year. Worldwide,
HIV/AIDS is a major public-health problem. After AIDS came SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
SARS first appeared in Asia in 2003, and spread to more than two dozen countries in a few months. According to the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 8,000 people worldwide were infected and 774 died. In the end, only
eight people in the U.S. had verified symptoms, and all had traveled elsewhere. Then came fear of the flu. The world’s epidemiologists are still keeping a close eye on the avian flu, and companies and schools are preparing for a pandemic of some
kind of flu in the immediate future. Finally, just last year, it appeared that airplane passengers had been exposed to an
antibiotic-resistant form of tuberculosis by a fellow traveler. It turned out that the traveler’s disease was less dangerous
than it seemed at first, but the possibility of an outbreak was very real. Chronic diseases also are on the rise, given the aging
and affluence of the U.S. population. Chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, arthritis, asthma, obesity, diabetes, and mental illness cause untold misery for more than 90 million Americans, and account for 75 percent of the
country’s spiraling costs for medical care. An increasingly urban population, environmental degradation, tobacco use,
and unhealthy diet and exercise habits all contribute to the continuing increase in the incidence of chronic disease.
Some implications for the country at large are clear. We still have not found a way to provide health care coverage to every person. The aging of the baby boomers will draw even more resources into health care. Poor health detracts from our economic
well–being and our overall quality of life.
This driver of change also is bound to affect educators in the coming decade. Already, the administration of medications
to children with asthma, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and other conditions is a major responsibility for schools.
Food allergies and anaphylactic reactions have required attention from educators monitoring school treats and lunchrooms.
The American Psychiatric Association (APA) estimates the incidence of mental illness–from depression and anxiety to
autism and bipolar disorder—at one-fifth of school-age children, impairing learning to varying degrees. Some schools
already address health matters through health education or onsite clinics. In this era of accountability for student achievement,
however, many schools see health as beyond their scope of responsibility. But ultimately, health has such a strong relationship
with learning that it will be difficult for educators to avoid dealing with it, whether through direct services or
partnerships and referrals.
Urban Wilderness:
From Predominantly Rural to Predominantly Urban Spaces
Cities have existed throughout modern history. The most populous city in the world in the year 100 AD was Rome, Italy
(450,000), followed closely by Luoyang, China (420,000). In the year 1000 AD, Cordova, Spain (450,000) topped the list,
and by the year 1500 it was Beijing, China (672,000). In 1900, London (6,480,000) was first, and New York, N.Y., came
second (4,242,000). Even as cities grew and switched places on the list, the majority of the human race lived in the country,
where they cultivated the land. In the year 2007, that balance has reversed. The continuing trend is for people to leave
the land and pour into cities, and the majority of the human race now lives in a city.
Even in older U.S. cities, where the center city may be losing population, the effect of urban sprawl is that first- and
second-ring suburbs are themselves becoming urban spaces. So the amount of urban space is continuing to grow.
Urbanization creates a number of challenges for the management of health (see Sick Herd section) and for every kind
of infrastructure, from bridges to schools. Extreme wealth exists right next to extreme poverty in cities, creating challenges
to social stability. Cities create high levels of environmental degradation simply as a result of the volume of human activity,
which creates waste and pollutes the air.
All of these issues feed into the extreme challenges faced by urban education. Just a cursory look at the work of key advocates on behalf of urban education helps to chronicle these challenges. The Council of the Great City Schools has published
recent research briefs on Recruiting and Retaining Effective Teachers in Urban Schools and Improving Teaching and Learning
for English Language Learners in Urban Schools. Even the title of one of the Council’s regular publications, Beating the
Odds, reveals its view that urban students face high odds against success. As the National Institute for Urban School Improvement
states on its website: There is no question that urban schools are the nexus for negotiating the complexities of ability,
ethnicity, language, privilege, power, and class that bubble barely under the surface of commerce, lifestyle, and community in the United States.
The End of Cyberspace:
From Physical Versus Digital to Seamlessly Physical and Digital
By now, many car owners have experienced the joys of navigating with the guidance of a global positioning system (GPS)
device. At the most basic level, GPS technology illustrates the seamless connection of physical and digital space. The 24
United States Department of Defense GPS satellites transmit signals to Earth, and the GPS receiver determines its distance
from the satellites. The GPS receiver then superimposes that data about position on the maps, informs the driver of his or
her exact physical location in the real world, and directs the driver to another spot. GPS and more goes into Google Earth,
where users can get images, geographic information, maps, and other data from around the world.
Other technologies also contribute to this trend toward the seamlessly physical and digital. Radio Frequency Identification
Devices (RFIDs), known as tags, containing specific identifying information are being embedded in objects, animals,
cards, and places. They are being used to pay tolls or masstransits charges, track inventory in warehouses, handle library
books, identify a cow’s original herd, find lost pets, and enhance all new U.S. passports.
These and related technologies yet to be developed present immense opportunities for learning. Imagine a historic neighborhood or a museum that is electronically tagged with information that a student can receive right on the spot. With
those tools, anytime/anyplace learning will become pervasive. Imagine the possibilities for engaging kinetic learners with devices
such as the popular Nintendo Wii game console that translate physical movement into virtual information. In the face
of this media–rich environment, as schools look to the next decade, they will need to find ways to harness the power of the
newly emerging, blended physical and virtual world.
Back to top