Scenario Planning

About Scenario Planning

McREL, as a strategic partner of KnowledgeWorks Foundation, offers Scenario Planning to help education leaders achieve these things:

  • Make use of the Map of Future Forces to prepare for the future in the context of their own educational organization and community.
  • Spark valuable conversations about the future challenges facing them.
  • Identify the organization’s preferred direction(s) for the future.
  • Inform sets of responsive strategies and contingency plans to be prepared for any future.
  • Build support for change across the school, district, state agency, organization, and community.

The future is not predictable, yet we make decisions every day based upon our perceptions of what will happen tomorrow, next month, or years from now. Forward Thinking: A Structured Response to Uncertainty is McREL’s series of workshops and consulting services that uses the innovative process of “scenario planning,” adapted from the Global Business Network’s model, to help education leaders anticipate the future and take action today to survive and thrive decades from now.

Scenario planning is the process of creating stories about possible futures in order to anticipate and prepare for changes beyond one’s control. Scenarios do not predict the future, but they do provide a way to identify and manage uncertainties. Scenario planning challenges the current mode of thinking, bringing new insights that drive transformation in organizations and institutions. The process involves eight steps:

  1. Select the focal issue and timeframe
  2. Explore the external world
  3. Clarify uncertainties
  4. Develop the scenario framework
  5. Write the scenarios
  6. Identify implications and strategic options
  7. Take action
  8. Monitor Trends

Get detailed instructions for each of the steps by downloading Instructions for Scenario Planning. (0.3MB PDF)

Once all steps have been completed, the consequences of certain actions within different possible future contexts become clearer, and leaders.

About McREL

Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning (McREL) is a Denver-based nonprofit organization that draws upon decades of education research to develop practical, user-friendly products that help educators across the nation create classrooms that provide all students with opportunities for success. McREL has analyzed key education trends and worked with school districts and other education organizations to help them understand how these trends are shaping education, now and in the future. Through workshops and other consulting services, McREL helps school leaders anticipate what lies over the horizon and plan actions they can take now to ensure that their organizations and students not only survive, but thrive, in the future.

Scenario Planning in Practice

Sample Scenario: Read how one district used scenario planning to mobilize support for change.

Step-by-step Instructions

Download Instructions for Scenario Planning. (0.3MB PDF)

Contact Information

For more information on scenario planning, please contact Laura Lefkowits, Vice President for Policy and Planning at McREL, or Renee Regnier, Administrative Coordinator at McREL at info@mcrel.org or (303) 337-3005. You can also visit their Future of Education website at www.mcrel.org/future.